The future of work is here, and Sri Lanka may not be ready. As global labour markets shift under the weight of automation, artificial intelligence, and rapid technological advancement, the demand for high-skilled talent is rising sharply. Yet, troublingly, Sri Lanka is experiencing a decline in the very workforce segment that is expected to power economic resilience in the years ahead.
Between 2019 and 2023, the proportion of Sri Lanka’s high-skilled workforce declined from 23 percent to just 20 percent. This trend is the opposite of what is happening in more advanced economies such as the United States, United Kingdom, and Singapore, where high-skilled employment is growing steadily. In these economies, strategic investments in education, research, and digital transformation are creating robust talent pipelines to support innovation and competitiveness. Sri Lanka, in contrast, risks falling further behind.
High-skilled workers, managers, professionals, technicians, and associate professionals, play an outsized role in shaping the productivity and innovation capacity of any economy. These roles often require at least first-level tertiary education and are resistant to automation due to their complexity, creativity, and human-centric decision-making. With global labour markets becoming increasingly polarised, where middle-skill jobs are squeezed out and both high-end and low-end roles expand, Sri Lanka’s declining high-skilled share is a structural weakness that could limit the country’s growth and adaptability.
Compounding this is the continued erosion of labour productivity. Sectors such as banking and finance, traditionally high-skilled and high-value areas of employment, have not been spared. From 2019 to 2023, productivity growth in banking sharply declined, averaging negative figures, and the sector even posted a negative employment rate. Retirement and overseas migration are likely culprits behind this decline, reflecting both an aging professional base and the growing brain drain of skilled workers seeking better opportunities
abroad.
This is particularly alarming because the global digital economy is rapidly transforming what constitutes value-added work. Low-skilled, routine-based jobs are being replaced by machines, while demand for specialized technical skills, data analytics, software development, digital marketing, cybersecurity, is surging. In this context, expanding and upskilling the high-skilled workforce is not just important; it is essential for Sri Lanka’s competitiveness and socio-economic progress.
However, Sri Lanka’s education and workforce development systems have not responded adequately to this shift. Access to high-quality tertiary education remains limited. Industry-academia collaboration is weak. Many university graduates lack the skills needed in today’s digital economy, and the absence of continuous professional development programs leaves the existing workforce vulnerable to redundancy in a changing job landscape.
Investments in high-skilled employment are investments in national stability. In a labour market still reeling from the effects of an economic crisis, a pandemic, and inflationary pressures, the pathway to recovery and transformation lies not in reviving outdated job models but in creating new opportunities at the top end of the skill spectrum. This means aligning curricula with market needs, building technical institutions that can deliver cutting-
edge training, and incentivizing private sector investment in high-value talent.
The urgency cannot be overstated. A 3 percentage point drop in high-skilled employment in just four years signals not only a misalignment between labour demand and supply, but a larger disconnect in national planning. Without deliberate action to reverse this trend, Sri Lanka may find itself locked into a cycle of low productivity, weak innovation, and poor job quality, while the rest of the world moves forward into the Fourth Industrial Revolution.
Sri Lanka’s demographic window is closing, and its most educated citizens are quietly leaving. If the country hopes to build a knowledge-based, competitive economy, then its strategy must begin with reversing the decline of its high-skilled workforce. The future will not wait.
